January 13, 2023

The US federal budget deficit for the calendar year 2022 was $1.42 trillion, down significantly from $3.35 trillion in 2021.

The US federal budget deficit as a percentage of GDP was 11.9% in 2021, down from 14.9% (which was the highest figure since World War II). GDP for 2022 is not yet available for comparison, but the relative percentage is expected to drop significantly.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the primary (pre-interest) US federal budget deficit as a percentage of GDP will drop back to 2.3% in 2022, gradually rising to 2.9% in 2032.

The projected gradual rise in the US federal budget deficit as a percentage of GDP, over the next decade, is mostly due to an expected rise in spending relative to GDP, while revenues remain fairly stable (CBO).

That projected spending increase is due to rising health care costs for an aging population, and higher interest rates on federal debt.

US public construction spending fell -0.1% m/m in November 2022, but was still up +10.4% from a year ago. These numbers are not adjusted to account for inflation, but still indicate a somewhat expansionary fiscal policy.