January 10, 2024
Today in Microsoft Flight Simulator 2020, I’ll be flying the Supermarine S.5, the British racing plane from the 1920s that pointed the way to one of the most iconic planes of World War II: the Spitfire. This is also the story of the Schneider Trophy, one of the most prestigious prizes in early aviation, which […]
January 4, 2024
Today in Microsoft Flight Simulator, I’ll be checking out the F-16. And to get things rolling, I’ll be flying one of its most historic missions: the 1981 Israeli bombing raid to take out Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor. Originally produced by General Dynamics (which has since sold its aircraft business to Lockheed Martin), the F-16 came […]
July 27, 2023
US real GDP in 2Q23 grew at an annualized q/q rate of +2.4% q/q, after inflation, higher than the 2.0% expected. This was up from +2.0% (revised upwards) in 1Q23. The composition of real GDP growth in 2Q23 was: +2.4% = +1.1 consumption, +1.0 business investment, +0.1 inventories, -0.2 housing, +0.5 government spending, -0.1 net […]
July 27, 2023
The University of Michigan’s US Consumer Sentiment gauge jumped +12.7% in July to 72.6. This is up +41.0% from a year ago, but remains well below pre-Covid levels. The Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence index rose +6.9 points in July to 117.0, its highest level since July 2021, though it remains below pre-Covid levels. In […]
July 27, 2023
At its July 2023 meeting, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC announced it was raising the Fed Funds Rate by 25 bps to a range between 5.25% and 5.50%, noting that unemployment remains low and inflation remains elevated. The rate hike in May was, at the time, widely anticipated to be the last in the cycle. However, […]
July 20, 2023
US consumer prices (CPI) rose +0.2% m/m in June, up +3.1% from a year ago (down from +4.1% y/y in May). This is down noticeably from a peak of +9.0% y/y last June. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) also rose +0.2% m/m in June, up +4.9% from a year ago (down from +5.3% y/y […]
July 20, 2023
U.S. factory orders rose +0.3% m/m in May, down -1.1% from a year ago. These numbers are not adjusted for inflation, which was running at +4.1% y/y (CPI) in May. U.S. durable goods orders rose +1.8% m/m in May, up +5.5% from a year ago – in this case, a positive real gain after inflation. […]
July 20, 2023
US industrial production fell -0.5% m/m in June, down -0.4% from a year ago. Production for Q2 as a whole rose +0.2% q/q, flat from a year ago. For the first half of 2023, production was up +0.4% from a year before. Total industrial capacity utilization fell to 78.9% in June. US manufacturing output (a […]
July 20, 2023
US retail sales rose +0.2% m/m in June, up +1.5% from a year ago. However, this is not adjusted for inflation. Given that consumer inflation (CPI) was running at +3.0% y/y in June, this indicates that sales continue to be down, in real terms, from a year ago. Retail sales for the first half of […]
July 10, 2023
The US economy added +209,000 jobs in June, below expectations. Previous months were also revised downwards by -77k in April and -33k in May, for a total of -110k. As a result, average job gains over first half of this year were +278k per month, down from an average rate of +399k per month in […]