April 18, 2023
US consumer prices (CPI) rose +0.1% m/m in March, up +5.0% from a year ago. This is down steadily from a peak of +9.0% y/y last June.
![](https://www.patrickchovanec.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Screen-Shot-2023-04-18-at-9.19.13-AM.png)
Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose +0.4% m/m in March, up +5.6% from a year ago. This is down from a peak of +6.7% y/y last September, but has remained persistent this year.
![](https://www.patrickchovanec.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Screen-Shot-2023-04-18-at-9.22.24-AM.png)
US consumer food prices (CPI) were flat in March, up +8.5% from a year ago. This is down from a peak of +11.4% y/y last August.
![](https://www.patrickchovanec.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Screen-Shot-2023-04-18-at-9.24.40-AM-1.png)
US consumer energy prices (CPI) fell -3.5% m/m in March, and are down -6.4% from a year ago. However, they remain historically high.
![](https://www.patrickchovanec.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Screen-Shot-2023-04-18-at-9.26.52-AM.png)
As of April 17, average gasoline prices across the US have risen back to $3.66, after falling to $3.09 in late December (down from a peak of $4.96 per gallon last June). That was up +1.9% from a month ago and down -9.9% from a year ago.
![](https://www.patrickchovanec.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Screen-Shot-2023-04-18-at-9.28.57-AM.png)
The US price of housing shelter (CPI) rose +0.6% m/m in March, up +8.2% from a year ago, its highest y/y rate since June 1982.
![](https://www.patrickchovanec.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Screen-Shot-2023-04-18-at-9.32.18-AM.png)
Overall inflation continues to cool, but US prices for basic necessities such as food and shelter remain stubbornly high, and gasoline prices have been rising again.
US producer prices (PPI – final demand) fell -0.5% m/m in March. This was up +2.8% from a year ago, down considerably from a peak of +11.7% y/y in March 2022. PPI is often seen as a (more volatile) leading indicator of the direction of consumer inflation, which suggests continued cooling.
![](https://www.patrickchovanec.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Screen-Shot-2023-04-18-at-9.36.58-AM.png)
The PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index, produced by the BEA, offers an alternative to the BLS’s CPI, one often preferred by the Federal Reserve. The PCE price index rose +0.3% m/m (an annualized rate of +3.2%) in February, up +5.0% from a year ago. That is down from a peak of +7.0% y/y last June.
![](https://www.patrickchovanec.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Screen-Shot-2023-04-18-at-9.39.29-AM-1.png)
Core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose +0.3% m/m in February up +4.6% from a year ago. This is down from its peak of +5.4% y/y in February 2022.
![](https://www.patrickchovanec.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Screen-Shot-2023-04-18-at-9.42.19-AM.png)
In terms of annual inflation rate, PCE for 2022 was up average of +6.2% from 2021, compared to 2021 which was up an average of +4.0% from 2020. Core PCE for 2022 was up an average of +5.0% from 2021, compared to 2021 which was up an average of +3.5% from 2020.
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