June 23, 2023
US consumer prices (CPI) rose +0.1% m/m in May, up +4.1% from a year ago (down from +5.0% y/y in April). This is down noticeably from a peak of +9.0% y/y last June.
![](https://www.patrickchovanec.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Screen-Shot-2023-06-23-at-1.46.46-PM.png)
Core CPI (excluding food and energy) also rose +0.4% m/m in May, up +5.3% from a year ago (down from +5.4% y/y in March). This is down from a peak of +6.7% y/y last September, but has persisted at a relatively high level so far this year.
![](https://www.patrickchovanec.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Screen-Shot-2023-06-23-at-1.48.45-PM.png)
US consumer food prices (CPI) rose +0.2% m/m in May, up +6.7% from a year ago. This is down from +7.6% y/y in April and a peak of +11.4% y/y last August.
![](https://www.patrickchovanec.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Screen-Shot-2023-06-23-at-1.50.13-PM.png)
US consumer energy prices (CPI) fell -3.6% m/m in May, down -11.3% from a year ago. However, they remain historically high.
![](https://www.patrickchovanec.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Screen-Shot-2023-06-23-at-1.50.49-PM.png)
As of June 19, average gasoline prices across the US stood at $3.58 per gallon, down -27.9% from a year ago. Gasoline prices reached a peak of $4.96 per gallon last June.
![](https://www.patrickchovanec.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Screen-Shot-2023-06-23-at-1.55.00-PM.png)
The US price of housing shelter (CPI) rose +0.6% m/m in May, up +8.0% from a year ago, down slightly from +8.2% y/y in March, which was its highest y/y rate since June 1982.
![](https://www.patrickchovanec.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Screen-Shot-2023-06-23-at-1.56.37-PM.png)
US producer prices (PPI – final demand) fell -0.3% m/m in May. This was up +1.2% from a year ago, down considerably from a peak of +11.7% y/y in March 2022. PPI is often seen as a (more volatile) leading indicator of the direction of consumer inflation, which suggests continued cooling.
![](https://www.patrickchovanec.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Screen-Shot-2023-06-23-at-1.57.47-PM.png)
The PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index, produced by the BEA, offers an alternative to the BLS’s CPI, one often preferred by the Federal Reserve. The PCE price index rose +0.4% m/m (an annualized rate of +4.5%) in April (latest available), up +4.4% from a year ago. That is down from a peak of +7.0% y/y last June, but up from +4.2% y/y in March.
![](https://www.patrickchovanec.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Screen-Shot-2023-05-30-at-9.11.50-PM.png)
Core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose +0.4% m/m in April, up +4.7% from a year ago. This is down from its peak of +5.4% y/y in February 2022, but up from +4.6% y/y in March.
![](https://www.patrickchovanec.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Screen-Shot-2023-05-30-at-9.13.06-PM.png)
The PCE price index rose at an annualized pace of +4.2% q/q in Q1, up from +3.7% in Q4. Note that these are q/q figures giving a snapshot of current price momentum, NOT y/y rates.
![](https://www.patrickchovanec.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Screen-Shot-2023-05-30-at-9.16.58-PM.png)
Core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose at a pace of +5.0% q/q in Q1, up from +4.4% in Q4. Both this and the headline PCE suggest that inflationary pressures is remains stubbornly persistent.
![](https://www.patrickchovanec.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Screen-Shot-2023-05-30-at-9.15.58-PM.png)
In terms of annual inflation rate, PCE for 2022 was up average of +6.2% from the prior year, compared to 2021 which was up an average of +4.0%. Core PCE for 2022 was up an average of +5.0% from the prior year, compared to 2021 which was up an average of +3.5%.
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