January 18, 2023

US retail sales fell -1.1% m/m in December, declining for the second month in a row. Sales were up +6.0% from a year ago, but that is not adjusted for inflation. Given that consumer inflation is running at +6.4% y/y, real sales are either flat or slightly negative.

Sales at gas stations fell -4.6% due to declining prices, but retail sales ex-gas still fell -0.8% m/m. Sales at electronics and appliances stores are performing the worst, down -5.6% from a year ago, even before factoring in inflation.

Auto sales declined in November to a fairly tepid annual rate of 14.1 million per year. This is only in part due to demand; supply continues to be constrained by global semiconductor chip shortages.