May 30, 2023
The University of Michigan’s US Consumer Sentiment gauge fell -6.8% in May to 59.2, though this is up +1.4% from a year ago. Sentiment remains well below pre-Covid levels. The Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence index fell -1.4 points in May to 102.3, and remains noticeably below pre-Covid levels. “Consumer confidence declined in May as […]
May 19, 2023
U.S. new homes sales rose +4.1% m/m in April, up +11.8% from a year ago. With the exception of a single month, this is the first time sales have turned positive y/y since May 2021. US existing home sales fell -3.4% m/m in April, down -23.2% from a year ago. The median sales price of […]
May 16, 2023
US industrial production rose +0.5% m/m in April, up just +0.2% from a year ago. However, it appears to be growing again after a modest drop at the end of last year. Total industrial capacity utilization rose slightly to 79.7% in April. US manufacturing output (a subset of industrial production) rose +1.0% m/m in April […]
May 16, 2023
US retail sales rose +0.4% m/m in April, after falling the prior two months. Sales were up +1.6% from a year ago, but this is not adjusted for inflation. Given that consumer inflation (CPI) was running at +5.0% y/y in April, this indicates that sales are actually down in real terms. It’s worth noting that […]
May 13, 2023
US consumer prices (CPI) rose +0.4% m/m in April, up +5.0% from a year ago (unchanged from March). This is down noticeably from a peak of +9.0% y/y last June. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) also rose +0.4% m/m in April, up +5.5% from a year ago (down from +5.6% y/y in March). This […]
May 9, 2023
At its May 2023 meeting, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC announced it was raising the Fed Funds Rate by 25 bps to a range between 5.00% and 5.25%. This was widely expected to be the last in a series of rate hikes that began in March 2022. The Fed’s statement can be found here. This chart offers […]
May 9, 2023
This post summarizes a Twitter thread I posted on May 7, 2023. 1. A short Q&A about the debt limit. First of all, where did it come from? 2. Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution assigns Congress the power to incur debt. Prior to World War I, it directly authorized each issuance of government […]
May 7, 2023
US real GDP in 1Q23 grew at an annualized rate of +1.1% q/q, slower than the 2.0% expected. This was down from +2.6% in 4Q22. The composition of real GDP growth in 1Q23 was: +1.1% = +2.5 consumption, +0.1 business investment, -2.3 inventories, -0.2 housing, +0.8 government spending, +0.1 net exports. In contrast, the (revised) […]
May 5, 2023
The US federal budget deficit for the calendar year 2022 was $1.42 trillion, down significantly from $3.35 trillion in 2021. The US federal budget deficit as a percentage of GDP declined back to 5.4% in 2022, down from 11.9% in 2021 and 14.9% (which was the highest figure since World War II). The Congressional Budget […]
May 4, 2023
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services declined to $64.2 billion in March, after reaching an all-time high in March 2020. The trade deficit for Q1 was $203.5 billion, -27.6% smaller than a year ago. In 2021, the annual U.S. trade deficit hit a new record at $845.0 billion. Higher tariff policies under the […]