July 20, 2023
US retail sales rose +0.2% m/m in June, up +1.5% from a year ago. However, this is not adjusted for inflation. Given that consumer inflation (CPI) was running at +3.0% y/y in June, this indicates that sales continue to be down, in real terms, from a year ago. Retail sales for the first half of […]
July 10, 2023
The US economy added +209,000 jobs in June, below expectations. Previous months were also revised downwards by -77k in April and -33k in May, for a total of -110k. As a result, average job gains over first half of this year were +278k per month, down from an average rate of +399k per month in […]
July 9, 2023
The following are diffusion indices, based on business surveys, which means that >50 indicates expansion and <50 indicates contraction, and 50 indicates no change. A larger or small number indicates breadth, not intensity, among survey respondents. ISM Manufacturing Index fell -0.9 points in June to 46.0, its 8th straight month of contraction. All of the […]
June 23, 2023
US consumer prices (CPI) rose +0.1% m/m in May, up +4.1% from a year ago (down from +5.0% y/y in April). This is down noticeably from a peak of +9.0% y/y last June. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) also rose +0.4% m/m in May, up +5.3% from a year ago (down from +5.4% y/y […]
June 23, 2023
U.S. new homes sales rose +4.1% m/m in April (last available), up +11.8% from a year ago. With the exception of a single month, this is the first time sales have turned positive y/y since May 2021. US existing home sales rose +0.2% m/m in May, down -20.4% from a year ago. The median sales […]
June 19, 2023
U.S. factory orders rose +0.4% m/m in April, up just +0.2% from a year ago. Keep in mind these numbers are not adjusted for inflation, and the PCE price index was up +4.4% y/y in April, which indicates a real contraction. US durable goods orders rose +1.1% m/m in April, up +4.2% from a year […]
June 19, 2023
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services rose to $74.6 billion in April, but was still -13.3% smaller than a year ago. The trade deficit for Q1 was $201.0 billion, -27.2% smaller than a year ago. In 2022, the annual U.S. trade deficit hit a new record at $951.2 billion. Higher tariff policies under […]
June 19, 2023
US industrial production fell -0.2% m/m in May, up just +0.2% from a year ago. Total industrial capacity utilization fell slightly to 79.6% in May. US manufacturing output (a subset of industrial production) rose +0.1% m/m in May, but is down -0.3% from a year ago. Manufacturing capacity utilization remained unchanged at 78.4% in May
June 2, 2023
The following are diffusion indices, based on business surveys, which means that >50 indicates expansion and <50 indicates contraction, and 50 indicates no change. A larger or small number indicates breadth, not intensity, among survey respondents. ISM Manufacturing Index fell -0.2 points in May to 46.9, its 7th straight month of contraction. Although production rose […]
June 2, 2023
The US economy added +339,000 jobs in May, beating expectations of a +190,000 gain. Previous months were also revised upwards by +52k in March and +41k in March, for a total of +93k. As a result, average job gains over the past three months were +283k per month, down from an average rate of +399k […]