July 27, 2023
US real GDP in 2Q23 grew at an annualized q/q rate of +2.4% q/q, after inflation, higher than the 2.0% expected. This was up from +2.0% (revised upwards) in 1Q23. The composition of real GDP growth in 2Q23 was: +2.4% = +1.1 consumption, +1.0 business investment, +0.1 inventories, -0.2 housing, +0.5 government spending, -0.1 net […]
July 27, 2023
The University of Michigan’s US Consumer Sentiment gauge jumped +12.7% in July to 72.6. This is up +41.0% from a year ago, but remains well below pre-Covid levels. The Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence index rose +6.9 points in July to 117.0, its highest level since July 2021, though it remains below pre-Covid levels. In […]
July 27, 2023
At its July 2023 meeting, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC announced it was raising the Fed Funds Rate by 25 bps to a range between 5.25% and 5.50%, noting that unemployment remains low and inflation remains elevated. The rate hike in May was, at the time, widely anticipated to be the last in the cycle. However, […]
July 20, 2023
US consumer prices (CPI) rose +0.2% m/m in June, up +3.1% from a year ago (down from +4.1% y/y in May). This is down noticeably from a peak of +9.0% y/y last June. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) also rose +0.2% m/m in June, up +4.9% from a year ago (down from +5.3% y/y […]
July 20, 2023
U.S. factory orders rose +0.3% m/m in May, down -1.1% from a year ago. These numbers are not adjusted for inflation, which was running at +4.1% y/y (CPI) in May. U.S. durable goods orders rose +1.8% m/m in May, up +5.5% from a year ago – in this case, a positive real gain after inflation. […]
July 20, 2023
US industrial production fell -0.5% m/m in June, down -0.4% from a year ago. Production for Q2 as a whole rose +0.2% q/q, flat from a year ago. For the first half of 2023, production was up +0.4% from a year before. Total industrial capacity utilization fell to 78.9% in June. US manufacturing output (a […]
July 20, 2023
US retail sales rose +0.2% m/m in June, up +1.5% from a year ago. However, this is not adjusted for inflation. Given that consumer inflation (CPI) was running at +3.0% y/y in June, this indicates that sales continue to be down, in real terms, from a year ago. Retail sales for the first half of […]
July 10, 2023
The US economy added +209,000 jobs in June, below expectations. Previous months were also revised downwards by -77k in April and -33k in May, for a total of -110k. As a result, average job gains over first half of this year were +278k per month, down from an average rate of +399k per month in […]
July 9, 2023
The following are diffusion indices, based on business surveys, which means that >50 indicates expansion and <50 indicates contraction, and 50 indicates no change. A larger or small number indicates breadth, not intensity, among survey respondents. ISM Manufacturing Index fell -0.9 points in June to 46.0, its 8th straight month of contraction. All of the […]
June 23, 2023
US consumer prices (CPI) rose +0.1% m/m in May, up +4.1% from a year ago (down from +5.0% y/y in April). This is down noticeably from a peak of +9.0% y/y last June. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) also rose +0.4% m/m in May, up +5.3% from a year ago (down from +5.4% y/y […]