February 6, 2023
At its January-February 2023 meeting, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC announced it was raising the Fed Funds Rate by 25 bps to 4.75%. This was the latest in a series of rate hikes that began in March 2022. The Fed’s statement can be found here. This chart offers a longer-term perspective on the Fed Funds rate, which […]
February 6, 2023
The University of Michigan’s US Consumer Sentiment gauge rebounded +8.7% in December to 64.9, though that is still down -3.4% from a year ago. The Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence index fell -1.9 points in January to 107.0, and remains noticeably below pre-Covid levels. In January, 20.2% of consumers surveyed by the Conference Board said […]
February 5, 2023
The following are diffusion indices, based on business surveys, which means that >50 indicates expansion and <50 indicates contraction, and 50 indicates no change. A larger or small number indicates breadth, not intensity, among survey respondents. ISM Manufacturing Index fell -1.0 points in January to 47.4, its third month in contraction. While manufacturing employment seems […]
February 4, 2023
U.S. factory orders rose +1.8% m/m in December, up +8.6% from a year ago. Keep in mind these numbers are not adjusted for inflation, and the PCE price index was up +5.0% y/y in December. For Q4 as a whole, orders were flat q/q, up +8.7% from a year before. For 2022 as a whole, […]
February 4, 2023
The US economy added +517,000 jobs in January, blowing away expectations of a +187,000 increase. In addition to the surprise outperformance in January, previous months were revised upwards by +34k in November and +37k in December, for total of +71k. As a result, average job gains over the past three months were +356k per month […]
January 31, 2023
Today in Microsoft Flight Simulator, I’m flying the DHC-2 Beaver, the closest thing Canada has to a national airplane. DHC stands for de Havilland Canada. In another post on the Tiger Moth, I mentioned how the British-owned de Havilland company established a Canadian subsidiary, starting in 1928, to manufacture the Moth for the overseas training […]
January 28, 2023
U.S. new homes sales rose +2.3% m/m in December, but were down -26.6% from a year ago. For Q4 as a whole, sales rose +4.4% q/q, down -19.9% from a year before. For 2022 as a whole, sales were down -16.5% from 2021. US existing home sales fell -1.5% m/m in December, down -34.0% from […]
January 28, 2023
Today in MSFS I’m checking out the Cessna L-19 “Bird Dog”, starting off at the Bien Hoa Air Base in Vietnam. The L-19 was introduced in 1950 as a light, 2-seat observation, artillery spotting, and liaison airplane for the Army after the Air Force split away on its own. The L-19 is similar is aerodynamic […]
January 28, 2023
US consumer prices (CPI) fell -0.1% m/m in December, up +6.4% from a year ago. This is down from a peak of +9.0% y/y in June. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose +0.3% m/m in December, up +5.7% from a year ago. This is down from a peak of +6.7% y/y in September. US […]
January 28, 2023
U.S. factory orders fell -1.8% m/m in November, up +7.3% from a year ago. Keep in mind these numbers are not adjusted for inflation, and the PCE price index was up +5.5% y/y in November. US durable goods orders spiked up +5.6% m/m in December, up +11.9% from a year ago (not adjusting for inflation). […]