January 26, 2023
US real GDP in 4Q22 grew at an annualized rate of +2.9% q/q, higher than expected, seeming to allay recession fears. This was down from +3.2% in Q3. That means that for 2022 as a whole, real GDP grew +2.1%, down from a +5.9% spike in 2021 due to the bounce back from Covid. The […]
January 24, 2023
In July 2020, I was asked by the China Institute to participate in their video podcast series “Pieces of China”. Each guest speaker chooses an object from China’s past as the window into the country’s culture and history. Given my interest in economics, I chose the 1911 Hukuang Railway Bond. In this talk, I describe […]
January 18, 2023
Today in Microsoft Flight Simulator, I’m flying the Bede BD-5J, the world’s smallest jet, famous for being flown by Roger Moore as James Bond in Octopussy. The BD-5J is very popular at airshows, so I’m flying it today out of Oshkosh (Whitman Regional Airport, KOSH) in Wisconsin. The BD-5 was designed in the late 1960s […]
January 18, 2023
US industrial production fell -0.7% m/m in December, its third straight month of decline. Nevertheless, production is still up +1.6% from a year ago. For Q4 as a whole, production fell -0.4% q/q, up +2.4% from a year before. For 2022 as a whole, it was up +3.9% from 2021. Total industrial capacity utilization declined […]
January 18, 2023
The University of Michigan’s US Consumer Sentiment gauge rebounded +8.2% in December to 64.6, though that is still down -3.9% from a year ago. The Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence index bounced back +6.9 points in December to 108.3, but remains tepid relative to pre-Covid levels. In December, 19.0% of consumers surveyed by the Conference […]
January 18, 2023
US retail sales fell -1.1% m/m in December, declining for the second month in a row. Sales were up +6.0% from a year ago, but that is not adjusted for inflation. Given that consumer inflation is running at +6.4% y/y, real sales are either flat or slightly negative. Sales at gas stations fell -4.6% due […]
January 17, 2023
Today I reenacted French aviator Louis Blériot’s historic 1909 crossing of the English Channel, in Microsoft Flight Simulator. Louis Blériot was a French engineer who invented the first practical headlight for automobiles. After building a successful headlight business, he turned his attention to the experimental field of aviation. The Blériot XI, built in 1909, was […]
January 17, 2023
Today in MSFS, I’m at the Aerodrome de Saint-Cyr-l’École in Versailles to tell the story of the famous French aviatrix Hélène Boucher and her airplane, the Caudron C.430 Rafale. Boucher is France’s version of Amelia Earhart – equally iconic and equally tragic in the French imagination. Charles Lindbergh’s solo crossing of the Atlantic, from New […]
January 13, 2023
The Brent Oil Price (global) ended 2022 at $82.82 per barrel, up +7.2% from a year before, but down significantly from its spike to $133.18 in March following the Ukraine invasion. The WTI Oil Price (domestic US) ended 2022 at $80.16 per barrel, up +6.4% from a year ago. It peaked at $123.64 in March. […]
January 13, 2023
The US federal budget deficit for the calendar year 2022 was $1.42 trillion, down significantly from $3.35 trillion in 2021. The US federal budget deficit as a percentage of GDP was 11.9% in 2021, down from 14.9% (which was the highest figure since World War II). GDP for 2022 is not yet available for comparison, […]