January 18, 2023
US retail sales fell -1.1% m/m in December, declining for the second month in a row. Sales were up +6.0% from a year ago, but that is not adjusted for inflation. Given that consumer inflation is running at +6.4% y/y, real sales are either flat or slightly negative. Sales at gas stations fell -4.6% due […]
January 28, 2023
US consumer prices (CPI) fell -0.1% m/m in December, up +6.4% from a year ago. This is down from a peak of +9.0% y/y in June. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose +0.3% m/m in December, up +5.7% from a year ago. This is down from a peak of +6.7% y/y in September. US […]
January 7, 2023
The U.S. economy added +223,000 jobs in December, beating expectations of +200,000. Over the past three months, the economy has added an average of +247,000 jobs per month. For 2022 as a whole, the economy added +4.5 million jobs (an average of +375,000 per month), compared to +6.7 million jobs added in 2021 and a […]
January 5, 2023
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services declined to $61.5 billion in November, after reaching an all-time high in March 2020. In 2021, the annual U.S. trade deficit hit a new record at $845.0 billion. Higher tariff policies under the Trump and Biden Administrations have not made any significant dent in the trade deficit. […]
January 13, 2023
The Brent Oil Price (global) ended 2022 at $82.82 per barrel, up +7.2% from a year before, but down significantly from its spike to $133.18 in March following the Ukraine invasion. The WTI Oil Price (domestic US) ended 2022 at $80.16 per barrel, up +6.4% from a year ago. It peaked at $123.64 in March. […]
January 5, 2023
At its December 2022 meeting, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC announced it was raising the Fed Funds Rate by 25 bps to 4.5%. This was the latest in a series of rate hikes that began in March 2022. The Fed’s statement can be found here. This chart offers a longer-term perspective on the Fed Funds rate, […]
January 13, 2023
The US federal budget deficit for the calendar year 2022 was $1.42 trillion, down significantly from $3.35 trillion in 2021. The US federal budget deficit as a percentage of GDP was 11.9% in 2021, down from 14.9% (which was the highest figure since World War II). GDP for 2022 is not yet available for comparison, […]
January 5, 2023
The following are diffusion indices, based on business surveys, which means that >50 indicates expansion and <50 indicates contraction, and 50 indicates no change. A larger or small number indicates breadth, not intensity, among survey respondents. ISM Manufacturing Index fell another -0.6 points in December, falling deeper into contraction at 48.4. Manufacturing employment turned slightly […]
January 4, 2023
The S&P 500 Index ended 2022 at 3,839.50, down -19.4% from a year before, after peaking almost exactly at end of 2021. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) ended 2022 at 33,147.25, down -8.8% from a year before, after peaking on January 4. The Nasdaq Composite Index ended 2022 at 10,466.48, down -33.1% from a […]
December 18, 2022
From a Twitter thread I wrote on December 10, 2022: 1. Xi is visiting Saudi Arabia, so I see we’re going to do the “OMG, the Saudis are going to start accepting the RMB for oil and destroy the dollar” thing, so let me explain why I don’t see that as being in anyone’s real […]