December 13, 2022
The U.S. economy added +263,000 jobs in November. The jobs number for September was revised down by -46,000 and October was revised upwards by +23,000, for a net revision of -23,000. Leisure and hospitality added the most jobs (+88k), followed by health care (+45k) and government (+42k). Construction gained +20,000 jobs and manufacturing gained +14,000. […]
December 13, 2022
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services grew to $78.2 billion in October. In 2021, the U.S. trade deficit hit a new record at $845.0 billion. Higher tariff policies under the Trump and Biden Administrations have not made any significant dent in the trade deficit. Usually the trade deficit shrinks during a recession, but […]
December 13, 2022
The following are diffusion indices, based on business surveys, which means that >50 indicates expansion and <50 indicates contraction, and 50 indicates no change. A larger or small number indicates breadth, not intensity, among survey respondents. The ISM Manufacturing Index fell -1.2 points in November, into contraction at 49.0. This was the first contraction reading […]
December 13, 2022
U.S. new homes sales rose +7.5% m/m in October, but were down -5.8% from a year ago. Existing home sales fell -5.9% m/m in October, down -28.4% from a year ago. The media sales price of new homes rose +8.2% m/m in October, up +15.4% from a year ago. The Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price […]
December 13, 2022
U.S. retail sales rose +1.3% m/m in October, after staying flat in September. This puts them up +8.3% from a year ago. Keep in mind these numbers are not adjusted for inflation, which running at +7.1% y/y. Gas station sales saw the largest increase, both m/m and y/y (due, at least in the latter case, […]
December 13, 2022
The University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index rose +2.3 points in December to 59.1. However, it is still down -16.3% from a year ago. Previously, the Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer Confidence Index declined -2.0 points in November to 100.2. In November, 18.2% of consumers surveyed by the Conference Board said business conditions were “good,” […]
December 13, 2022
U.S. factory orders rose +1.0% m/m in October, up +11.1% from a year ago. Note that this number is not adjusted for inflation. US durable goods orders fell -2.1% m/m in November, up +6.7% from a year ago. Again, not adjusted for inflation, so real growth in orders is significantly smaller. Durable goods orders excluding […]
December 13, 2022
US consumer prices (CPI) rose +0.1% m/m in November, lower than expected, up +7.1% from a year ago (down from a peak of +9.0% y/y in June). Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose +0.2% m/m in November, less than expected, up +6.0% from a year ago (down from +6.7% in October). Consumer food prices […]
December 13, 2022
US industrial production fell -0.2% m/m in November. Nevertheless, production is still up +2.5% from a year ago. Total industrial capacity utilization declined to 79.7% in November. US manufacturing output (a subset of industrial production) fell -0.6% m/m in November, though it is still up +1.4% from a year ago. Manufacturing capacity utilization declined to […]
December 13, 2022
US real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annualized q/q rate of +2.9% in Q3, better than expected, after two quarters of negative growth. This is as of revised data released November 30, 2022. The composition of US GDP growth in Q3 was: +2.9% = +1.2 consumption, +0.7 business investment, -1.0 inventories, -1.4 housing, […]